Today the Almond Board of California released the March 2014 position report.

March shipments were 151.3 million lbs. vs. 140.6 million lbs. last season.

Up 7.6% Overall.

Domestic shipments were up 9.2%

Exports were up 6.6%

DEMAND:

India, down 25% for the season, showed an impressive 35% increase for the month of March. High almond prices and weak Indian rupee have hurt consumption this season. China continued to ship at a slow pace, though inventory levels there seem low and much lower than at the same time last year. Chinese importers do not see good opportunity to profit at current almond prices, so are buying other nuts in place of almonds, for now.

Western Europe's growth moderated as buyers became more cautious. Central/Eastern Europe, was off 53% due to the sharp decline in Russia. The political situation may continue to hamper Russian shipments in the coming months.

THE 2013 CROP:

Receipts surpassed 2 billion lbs. with Nonpareil receipts at 806 million.

Uncommitted inventory is 536 million vs. 512 million lbs. a year ago. It appears that a disproportionately high volume of the carry out will be Nonpareil.

THE 2014 CROP:

Industry expectations are for a crop similar to 2013, assuming the water impact is not too significant.

The Nonpareil crop appears off. The Nonpareil trees in many orchards went into bloom with a weaker bud set due to the heavy '13 crop. You can see the lighter crop by the lack of clusters of nuts. NP kernel sizing should be about 1-2 sizes larger.

Butte/Padre are inconsistent but good overall. Other pollinators look excellent.

Factors that could help contribute to more '14 tonnage include kernel sizing (at least for NP if not others) and additional 3rd and 4th leaf acreage.

OUTLOOK:

World-wide inventory is low to moderate depending on the region. However, buyer confidence is also low, so most of the buying is for nearby shipment. We anticipate a total carry-out similar to 2013 along with another early harvest.

At today's price levels, the expectation for 2 billion lbs. in California and an improved Mediterranean crop, appears slightly bearish for the market. Thus, prices have moved down again recently. Today's shipment numbers are positive for the market and may change the sentiment. NASS estimates on either side of 2B could really change the direction of the market. This year the Almond Board will be executing two new surveys in conjunction with the NASS estimates. These should give us additional information on the water situation among different growers, and info on how much planting is taking place. This information should be very valuable for our industry.

The NASS Subjective Estimate is due for release Thursday May 1

The April position report is due for release Monday May 9

Click here to download the March 2014 Position Report

For any questions or comments please call, or write to paul@voyagerfoods.com