Organic almond prices are at record highs heading into the 2015 crop year...levels similar to where the '14 crop traded for the past 6 months.
Carry-in appears to be quite low.
Harvest is underway, with most Nonpareils complete and pollinators not far behind. It is the earliest harvest in recent history. California production for 2015 appears off from last season. Yields per acre are down for most. For smaller acreage growers of organic almonds in particular, some have not been able to find the quantity or quality of water needed and the impact on production is enormous. Some are expecting declines in production of 40% or more. Below are pictures of some of these orchards. The reason supply may remain somewhat stable is the increased bearing acreage as some acreage comes out of transition or comes into bearing age.
Spain is expecting another good crop overall, and particularly in organic where many growers have been getting certified. Spanish shipments into North America should increase again due to the 20% discount below California's prices.
Consumption of organic almonds in straight packs, bulk bins and butter, is off due to the high prices. However, ingredient use in some segments remains strong. New product development is slowing due to the record high prices. Demand for organic at the major retailers in general is very good as consumer demand shifts more toward natural and organic foods. This bodes well for potential growth when supply begins growing again in the future.
With the mixed impact on consumption, and increased imports out of Spain, and uncertain California supply, the mid to long-term market outlook is uncertain. The short-term market outlook appears to be quite firm.
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